NASCAR Fantasy Preview - Dover
When researching this week's picks for the race at Dover, Nascar.com's Dan Beaver put it best when he said the following..."Much like Bristol, Dover is a rhythm track. To go fast, drivers have to hit precise marks lap after lap after lap, and that repetitiveness can lull them into a false sense of security. If they relax, however, the wall will reach up and slap them and if a driver spins out on this track the course is narrow with solid retaining walls on both sides. There is no room for error, and field-stopping crashes are not uncommon at the Monster Mile.
Because this is a rhythm track, long streaks of top-five and top-10 finishes are not uncommon, but last year NASCAR threw a monkey wrench into the system with the unknown variable of the Car of Tomorrow. Only three drivers backed up a strong finish in the spring with another strong result in the fall, and they headline this week's list of favorites."
Because this is a rhythm track, long streaks of top-five and top-10 finishes are not uncommon, but last year NASCAR threw a monkey wrench into the system with the unknown variable of the Car of Tomorrow. Only three drivers backed up a strong finish in the spring with another strong result in the fall, and they headline this week's list of favorites."
With those factoids in mind, here are my selecions at Dover for this week's SCC on ESPN.
Carl Edwards – Edward’s historical performance at Dover International Speedway is impressive. In seven starts, his average qualifying position is 15.1 and his average finish is 9.1, with a best finish of first and a worst finish of 18th. Edwards finished first in Fall 2007, third in Spring 2007, second in Fall 2006 and 15th in Spring 2006. Not only did Edwards product the second best time during happy hour racing, he is the fifth ranked driver in Nascar’s fantasy power rankings system for concrete tracks over the past three years.
Greg Biffle – Finishing third in happy-hour times, Biffle is another pick with a solid record at Dover. Greg averages 15.0 place in qualifying and 12.9 place on race day. In 11 starts, his best finish is first and his worst is 33rd. Biffle finished second in Fall 2007, Sixth in spring 2007, fifth in Fall 2006 and eight in Spring 2007. He is the top ranked driver in Nascar’s fantasy power rankings system for concrete tracks over the past three years.
Mark Martin – Over 22 starts at Dover, Martin averages a qualifying position of 13.0 and an average finish of 10.2. His best finish was first and his worst finish was 41st. He is the sixth ranked driver in Nascar’s fantasy power rankings system for concrete tracks over the past three years. Martin finished fourth in Fall 2007, seventh in Spring 2007, fourteenth in Fall 2006, and ninth in Spring 2007. He is an excellent value pick at Dover, despite today’s poor practice speed.
Matt Kenseth – Kenseth is the second ranked driver in Nascar’s fantasy power rankings system for concrete tracks over the past three years. In eighteen starts at Dover, Kenseth averages a qualifying position of 16.2 and a finishing place of 15.3, with a high of first and a low of 40th. Most recently, he finished out of the top 20 in Fall 2007, fifth in Spring 2007, tenth in Fall 2006, and first in spring 2006. I am taking this value pick despite a disappointing practice speed.
Ryan Newman – It is hard to go wrong with a racer who posts the ninth best practice speed and is ranked the twelfth best driver in Nascar’s fantasy power rankings system for concrete tracks over the past three years. Newman also owns the best average qualifying position at Dover (7.3) and the second best average finish position at Dover (10.0). Over twelve starts, Newman’s best finish is first and his worst is 28th. Most recently he finished out of the top 20 in Fall 2007, second in Spring 2007, 24th in Fall 2006, and 14th in Spring 2006.
Other drivers to consider: Jeff Gordon is coming off an impressive showing and placed the top qualifying speed during happy-hour. In 22 starts, his average finish position is 13.8. Gordon is at a great price now, yet he never seems to offer high-end performance at Dover…It is hard to bet against the hottest racer in NASCAR, Kyle Busch. His past performance on similar tracks and four best speed during happy hour seem to foretell a promising future. The only knock is that his average finish position if 11.8 is awfully expensive this week…What’s not to like about Dale Earnhardt Jr.? Great history on Dover-like tracks and excellent performance to date. Well, for starters, Dale’s happy-hour speed was a deflating 21st best, and his average finish at Dover is 15.8. If you want to overpay for a no-stress driver, Dale seems the solid bet this week…others who could surprise include Denny Hamlin, Kurt Bush, Jeff Burton, Clint Bowyer, Kevin Harvick, Tony Stewart, and Martin Truex Jr.
For your reading enjoyment: Dover practice speeds…Driver performance at Dover…Expert picks…NASCAR fantasy preview…ESPN preview…ESPN projections
Carl Edwards – Edward’s historical performance at Dover International Speedway is impressive. In seven starts, his average qualifying position is 15.1 and his average finish is 9.1, with a best finish of first and a worst finish of 18th. Edwards finished first in Fall 2007, third in Spring 2007, second in Fall 2006 and 15th in Spring 2006. Not only did Edwards product the second best time during happy hour racing, he is the fifth ranked driver in Nascar’s fantasy power rankings system for concrete tracks over the past three years.
Greg Biffle – Finishing third in happy-hour times, Biffle is another pick with a solid record at Dover. Greg averages 15.0 place in qualifying and 12.9 place on race day. In 11 starts, his best finish is first and his worst is 33rd. Biffle finished second in Fall 2007, Sixth in spring 2007, fifth in Fall 2006 and eight in Spring 2007. He is the top ranked driver in Nascar’s fantasy power rankings system for concrete tracks over the past three years.
Mark Martin – Over 22 starts at Dover, Martin averages a qualifying position of 13.0 and an average finish of 10.2. His best finish was first and his worst finish was 41st. He is the sixth ranked driver in Nascar’s fantasy power rankings system for concrete tracks over the past three years. Martin finished fourth in Fall 2007, seventh in Spring 2007, fourteenth in Fall 2006, and ninth in Spring 2007. He is an excellent value pick at Dover, despite today’s poor practice speed.
Matt Kenseth – Kenseth is the second ranked driver in Nascar’s fantasy power rankings system for concrete tracks over the past three years. In eighteen starts at Dover, Kenseth averages a qualifying position of 16.2 and a finishing place of 15.3, with a high of first and a low of 40th. Most recently, he finished out of the top 20 in Fall 2007, fifth in Spring 2007, tenth in Fall 2006, and first in spring 2006. I am taking this value pick despite a disappointing practice speed.
Ryan Newman – It is hard to go wrong with a racer who posts the ninth best practice speed and is ranked the twelfth best driver in Nascar’s fantasy power rankings system for concrete tracks over the past three years. Newman also owns the best average qualifying position at Dover (7.3) and the second best average finish position at Dover (10.0). Over twelve starts, Newman’s best finish is first and his worst is 28th. Most recently he finished out of the top 20 in Fall 2007, second in Spring 2007, 24th in Fall 2006, and 14th in Spring 2006.
Other drivers to consider: Jeff Gordon is coming off an impressive showing and placed the top qualifying speed during happy-hour. In 22 starts, his average finish position is 13.8. Gordon is at a great price now, yet he never seems to offer high-end performance at Dover…It is hard to bet against the hottest racer in NASCAR, Kyle Busch. His past performance on similar tracks and four best speed during happy hour seem to foretell a promising future. The only knock is that his average finish position if 11.8 is awfully expensive this week…What’s not to like about Dale Earnhardt Jr.? Great history on Dover-like tracks and excellent performance to date. Well, for starters, Dale’s happy-hour speed was a deflating 21st best, and his average finish at Dover is 15.8. If you want to overpay for a no-stress driver, Dale seems the solid bet this week…others who could surprise include Denny Hamlin, Kurt Bush, Jeff Burton, Clint Bowyer, Kevin Harvick, Tony Stewart, and Martin Truex Jr.
For your reading enjoyment: Dover practice speeds…Driver performance at Dover…Expert picks…NASCAR fantasy preview…ESPN preview…ESPN projections
posted by Slasher @ 12:42 PM
0 comments
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home