NASCAR Preview - Pocono

Hamlin – Denny is ranked fourth in NASCAR’s Fantasy Power Rankings. He finished sixth in 2007 and first in 2006. Definitely a strong selection this weekend. In four races at Pocono, his best finishing is first, his worst finish in sixth, and his average finish is 2.8.

Gordon – Gordon won this event in 2007, and he finished a disappointing 34 in 2006. He is ranked second in NASCAR’s Fantasy Power Rankings at Pocono. In 22 appearances at this track, Gordon’s best finish is first, his worst finish is 36th, and his average finish is 9.1.

Johnson – Johnson is another strong performer at Pocono, placing third in NASCAR’s Fantasy Power Rankings at Pocono. In 12 races, his best finish if first, his worst finish is 42nd, and his average finish is 10.7. Johnson finished 42nd in 2007, and 10th in 2006.

Stewart – It is amazing that Johnson, Gordon and Steward are all considerably strong value picks in the NASCAR game. Steward finished fifth here in 2007, and second in 2006. Stewart is the top ranked driver in NASCAR’s Fantasy Power Rankings at Pocono. In 18 appearances, his best finish is first, his worst is 37th, and his average finish is 12.4.

Martin – Ranked seventh in NASCAR’s Fantasy Power Rankings at Pocono. Martin average finish in 22 appearances is 11.0, with his best showing second and his worst showing is 43rd. Mark finished seventh in 2007 and 17th in 2006.

Kenseth – You have to take Kenseth at Pocono, particularly when you consider his current value is $19.0M and he finished ninth in 2007 and fifth in 2006. Kenseth is ranked 11th in NASCAR’s Fantasy Power Rankings at Pocono. In 16 appearances, his best finish is third, his words is 36th, and his average finish is 14.8.

Newman – Newman is another stud at Pocono, finishing second in 2007 and eleventh in 2006. He ranks ninth in NASCAR’s Fantasy Power Rankings at Pocono. In his twelve race history at Pocono, Newman’s best finish is first, his worst is 34th, and his average finish is 13.6.

This week, I am going with Johnson, Gordon, Martin, Kenseth and Newman. An excellent alternate roster is Hamlin, Stewart, Martin, Kenseth and Newman.

Golf Picks - St. Jude

David Toms - Plays the short game well, which is important at the St. Jude Championship. In the last five years, he's won twice here, and finished second, third and tied-tenth in his other three appearance. If there was ever a must-have golfer, it is Toms at the St. Jude.

Pedraig Harrington - A simply dominant golfer going through a rough patch, Harrington is an excellent value pick. Despite missing the cut in his only appearance at St. Jude over the last three years and missing the cut at his most recent tournament, Pedraig leds the PGA tour in birdie average, finished in the top ten in three of seven events, finished in the top twenty in five of seven events, and no worse than 26th in the six of seven events where he made the cut. Harrington is a lock to light up the leaderboard with birdies this weekend.

Steve Lowery - An excellent value pick as a St. Jude ringer. Fredrik Jacobson also falls into this category (and out of my price range). Steve played in three of the St. Jude events over the past five years, finishing (in order) T-12, T-17, and T-3. I'll take that for less than $10M, thank you very much!

Camilo Villegas - While somewhat of a wild card selection, Villegas is electric when it comes to collecting birdies in bunches. Villegas finished in the money during his only two appearance at St. Jude over the past five events. He should be rested after his withdrawl from last week's Memorial. I expect good things.

Other golfers to consider include Justin Leonard, Fedrick Jacobson (noted above), Tom Pernice, Jr., Bob Estes, Brian Gay, Heath Slocum, Fred Funk, Tim Herron and Stephen Ames.

NFL Position Battles to Watch

NFL.com Senior Analyst Pat Kirwan, who also hosts Sirius NFL's Moving the Chains (with Tim Ryan), spent his weekend researching key NFL camp match-ups for 2008 (while the ladies in his family watched Sex in the City). Making sure to check out both the offensive and defensive breakdown of this article is a must for any fantasy GM hoping to get a leg-up on the competitions, particularly in deep leagues. Below are a couple of battles that will hold particular importance in fantasy leagues this year.

QB - The depth-chart battles in five NFL cities will rule the headlines during the NFL pre-season - Baltimore, Miami, Chicago, Arizona, and Kansas City. Frankly, I believe Leinart is going to parlay his newly anointed start status into an Eli Manning-like maturation this season. As a fantasy GM, I cannot get excited about the QB battle in Chicago because of the team's complete lack of depth and play-making skills at the WR position. The player in this group who should really surprise GMs this year is Josh McCown.

RB - The major competition at the RB position are in Chicago, Carolina, and Oakland. I'd avoid overpaying for any Carolina back this year, as they never seem to emerge as expected. Remember when Williams was the next big thing in CAR? Benson is showing up with new resolve, potentially enough to dupe some inexperienced GMs into taking the bait on draft day. The story in Oakland is a complete mess. Don't over pay for McFadden, because Bush is a solid starter in this league and Fargas has shown flashes.

WR - Several options are emerging in Jacksonville, New Orleans, and Buffalo. Label me a Robert Meachem fan this year, as I expect big things from this draft-day super-sleeper. Lance Moore is another excellent player. GMs should downgrade the sloppy-handed Devery Henderson - he'll never be as good as the butter-fingered Darrel Jackson, which is saying something.

TE - The battle in Seattle for the coveted TE position in Holmgren's West Coast offense is up for grabs. The Hawks reached for John Carlson for a reason, expect him to start and perform. Seattle's recent draft history is impressive. Remember the last second-round draft reach? He is now an All-Pro MLB.

D - Not all teams play individual defensive players. If you do, keep an eye on several players, including Merling (MIA), Sims (CIN), Ellis (NO), Gholston (NYJ), Connor (CAR), Phillips (NYG), and Jenkins (DAL)

Broncos Cut Henry

Weary of the pot-head's lackadaisical work ethic, the Denver Broncos cut RB Travis Henry. Henry started hot last season, then crushed the inflated dream of many fantasy GMs with missed playing time due to injury and speculation of a drug-related suspension. Selvin Young realized an amazing boost in value now that he sits atop the Bronco’s depth chart and believes he can rush for 2,000 yards this season.

Early reads had Travis Henry drafted in the middle of the seventh round in 2008 fantasy drafts. Young could jump up to a fifth round selection or better. Consider him a great RB options that GMs will often reach to select due to excessive hype. You’ll need to reach to get him on your team…and he might very well be worth it.

NASCAR Fantasy Preview - Dover

When researching this week's picks for the race at Dover, Nascar.com's Dan Beaver put it best when he said the following...

"Much like Bristol, Dover is a rhythm track. To go fast, drivers have to hit precise marks lap after lap after lap, and that repetitiveness can lull them into a false sense of security. If they relax, however, the wall will reach up and slap them and if a driver spins out on this track the course is narrow with solid retaining walls on both sides. There is no room for error, and field-stopping crashes are not uncommon at the Monster Mile.

Because this is a rhythm track, long streaks of top-five and top-10 finishes are not uncommon, but last year NASCAR threw a monkey wrench into the system with the unknown variable of the Car of Tomorrow. Only three drivers backed up a strong finish in the spring with another strong result in the fall, and they headline this week's list of favorites."

With those factoids in mind, here are my selecions at Dover for this week's SCC on ESPN.

Carl Edwards – Edward’s historical performance at Dover International Speedway is impressive. In seven starts, his average qualifying position is 15.1 and his average finish is 9.1, with a best finish of first and a worst finish of 18th. Edwards finished first in Fall 2007, third in Spring 2007, second in Fall 2006 and 15th in Spring 2006. Not only did Edwards product the second best time during happy hour racing, he is the fifth ranked driver in Nascar’s fantasy power rankings system for concrete tracks over the past three years.

Greg Biffle – Finishing third in happy-hour times, Biffle is another pick with a solid record at Dover. Greg averages 15.0 place in qualifying and 12.9 place on race day. In 11 starts, his best finish is first and his worst is 33rd. Biffle finished second in Fall 2007, Sixth in spring 2007, fifth in Fall 2006 and eight in Spring 2007. He is the top ranked driver in Nascar’s fantasy power rankings system for concrete tracks over the past three years.

Mark Martin – Over 22 starts at Dover, Martin averages a qualifying position of 13.0 and an average finish of 10.2. His best finish was first and his worst finish was 41st. He is the sixth ranked driver in Nascar’s fantasy power rankings system for concrete tracks over the past three years. Martin finished fourth in Fall 2007, seventh in Spring 2007, fourteenth in Fall 2006, and ninth in Spring 2007. He is an excellent value pick at Dover, despite today’s poor practice speed.

Matt Kenseth – Kenseth is the second ranked driver in Nascar’s fantasy power rankings system for concrete tracks over the past three years. In eighteen starts at Dover, Kenseth averages a qualifying position of 16.2 and a finishing place of 15.3, with a high of first and a low of 40th. Most recently, he finished out of the top 20 in Fall 2007, fifth in Spring 2007, tenth in Fall 2006, and first in spring 2006. I am taking this value pick despite a disappointing practice speed.

Ryan Newman – It is hard to go wrong with a racer who posts the ninth best practice speed and is ranked the twelfth best driver in Nascar’s fantasy power rankings system for concrete tracks over the past three years. Newman also owns the best average qualifying position at Dover (7.3) and the second best average finish position at Dover (10.0). Over twelve starts, Newman’s best finish is first and his worst is 28th. Most recently he finished out of the top 20 in Fall 2007, second in Spring 2007, 24th in Fall 2006, and 14th in Spring 2006.

Other drivers to consider: Jeff Gordon is coming off an impressive showing and placed the top qualifying speed during happy-hour. In 22 starts, his average finish position is 13.8. Gordon is at a great price now, yet he never seems to offer high-end performance at Dover…It is hard to bet against the hottest racer in NASCAR, Kyle Busch. His past performance on similar tracks and four best speed during happy hour seem to foretell a promising future. The only knock is that his average finish position if 11.8 is awfully expensive this week…What’s not to like about Dale Earnhardt Jr.? Great history on Dover-like tracks and excellent performance to date. Well, for starters, Dale’s happy-hour speed was a deflating 21st best, and his average finish at Dover is 15.8. If you want to overpay for a no-stress driver, Dale seems the solid bet this week…others who could surprise include Denny Hamlin, Kurt Bush, Jeff Burton, Clint Bowyer, Kevin Harvick, Tony Stewart, and Martin Truex Jr.

For your reading enjoyment: Dover practice speeds…Driver performance at Dover…Expert picks…NASCAR fantasy preview…ESPN preview…ESPN projections

Rays Closer Hits DL

Tampa Bay closer Troy Percival was placed on the 15-day disabled list with a left hamstring strain, and the Rays filled the roster opening by activating infielder Willy Aybar on Thursday. Dan Wheeler stepped in to secure the save, and appears to be an excellent near-term option for some cheap saves. Grab him off waivers before it is too late!

Arizona Cardinals Name QB Starter

The Cardinals today announced Matt Leinart is THE No. 1 QB entering training camp. This is excellent news for fantasy owners who picked up Leinart in keepers leagues. By this point in Leinart's career, Matt burnt so many fantasy GMs that he is bound to slip in your draft and become an excellent value selections as a lower-end No.1 or top-flight No.2 QB on fantasy teams.

Golf Picks - Memorial

Here are my thoughts on Golf picks this week, and some good reading resources. Welcome any feedback, as my golf picking skills are rather shaky this year.

Picks
Mickelson
Perry
Quinney (or Kim)
Graeme Storm

Articles
Rotoworld
PGATour.com – Who could win?
PGATour.com – Who could surprise?